Yes, it will be life after coronavirus too.
In the actual context, we have very little influence on what happens with the coronavirus crisis. So, instead of counting how many new cases of coronavirus appear every day (remember that you do not influence that), it is better to look forward and make a plan for what you will do after the crisis.
The reality is that, after the crisis, people will be short on money. In this situation, I see two possible scenarios after the crisis is over.
The governments will gradually increase the customs taxes (direct or indirect) for the imports, especially from China, and the import products will become ‘prohibitive’; the companies will look for the local suppliers.
On this point, there are two possible reactions to the market:
- The level of salaries will be the same or will gradually decrease, which means cheap products, low quality (remember the people are running out of money); the people will become poorer;
- The level of salaries will gradually increase, which means high-quality products, but, maybe, more expensive products (the price will depend on how good is the management). This should be the long-term winning approach, even if it will affect the short-term financial goals. The main issue in this scenario is the shortage of skilled workforce required to make the products.
The governments will not change the import policy. It means that this kind of crisis could return at any time (in any fall or any springtime) and, we didn’t learn the lesson from this crisis.
The companies will develop some local backup suppliers, but they will continue to be dependent on China products. And, because they cannot make the assembly without a small part, they will increase the stock from China parts.
Anyway, the ‘work from home’ system will be generally adopted, and it will be a dilemma on how to reduce the costs to make the products affordable: by decreasing the salaries or by improving the processes.
You have to be prepared for all scenarios; expect the worst, and hope for the best.
It will not be a declaration about which scenario every country will follow and, also, will not be sharp and obvious measures related to the chosen scenario. As an entrepreneur, you have to pay attention to see and adapt your plan.
The big companies will look and develop local suppliers, and this the opportunity for small and medium firms to increase their income.